June 26, 2024

Foresight Workshop: Experiencing the Impacts of Climate Change on the Supply Chain to Build a Desirable Future

"The human brain needs to know what the future will be made of", says Sébastien Bohler, and the conviction of the Foresight working group is that the future is being built! They therefore worked to raise awareness and get as many Supply Chain players on board as possible, in order to build desirable scenarios and strategies for adapting Supply Chains to climate risks. Here's a look back at the first deliverable from the project after a year of collective work: the Perils Workshop.

The prospective construction site :

beyond_CO2

Weak signals are already present in 2024, as numerous press articles show. In 2040, managing the impacts of climate change will be part of our daily lives.

How can we adapt to new expectations, regulations and climate change? What adaptation strategies should companies be building, starting today? Are the actions taken by companies sufficient and realistic?

Most climate-related efforts are focused on decarbonizing transport, yet other elements linked to climate change are already having a marginal impact on supply chains, but will become more significant in the future, and need to be considered now to transform companies.

Team brainstorming on the question of a desirable future

Participants in the feedback workshop.

The design fiction workshop :

making the foresight project a reality

An enthusiastic group guided by Aurélie Delemarle, Principal at Argon&Co, embarked on a year of collective work following a series of methodological choices:

Study scope: the 6 perils rather than the 9 planetary limits. The perils can be experienced and appeal to the emotions. What's more, they allow us to take into account all the categories of the European taxonomy, i.e. :
1. rising temperatures ;
2. an increase in violent storms;
3. loss of biodiversity;
4. flooding ;
5. rising waters;
6. water stress.
Impact scenarios rather than transition or climate change scenarios: the study focuses on the direct or indirect impacts on the 4 essential Supply Chain functions (demand, procurement, production and logistics distribution).

The results of this work will be published over the course of the year (Livrable péril, PESTELs, Nouveaux Récits, 1 or 2 scientific articles). The first of these was the subject of a full-scale test with members of the SupplyChain4Good Lab.

The group's first deliverable took the form of a 3-hour foresight workshop by design fiction. The reason for this choice was to get the participants involved in the story, and to help them experience and measure the impact of climate change.

Focus on the tools used during the workshop

The artefacts of biodiversity peril

This immersive approach won over customers, reinforcing their commitment to take action.

Participants are provided with a game kit containing artifacts (objects straight from 2040) and an explanatory note for facilitators, including the context of the scenario synthesized via a PESTEL.

Biodiversity:

The "poor relation" of climate change issues as a whole

Here's an issue that was close to the hearts of some of the participants, as rising temperatures, for example, are much more often talked about than biodiversity. "We're talking about supply footprint"Tariel Chamerois, CSR & Sustainability Manager France & Morocco for DB Schenker, tells us that companies are obliged to reduce their production sites, in this case wind farms, because they are located in a bird migration zone.

This "biodiversity peril" workshop raises the issue of limiting access to land, with sanctuarized zones where no one will be able to settle.

Then, of course, there's the question of budgeting and the impact on prices. How is biodiversity valued? What is the price of fish? What is the price of birds? Biodiversity provides a whole host of resources and/or ecosystem services that are currently free, or considered to be free, and so the first idea would be to reintegrate it into future budgets.

Today there is no value, so the group of the day concludes that the regulatory framework must and will evolve.

If we take the case of fishing again, today what is included in the sale price of fish is only the energy and human resources required to catch the fish, but not at all the fish resource, which is free once it has been caught. Tomorrow, we may have to consider regenerating the resource, as the FSC model does so well today (planting trees in return for those removed).

Pénélope Laigo, Sustainability & QHSE Group Director at FM Logistic

Last but not least, another anticipated impact is the need to design biodiversity-friendly supply chains. In other words, business models, buildings, flows and solutions that take into account potential impacts on biodiversity from the outset, and how to avoid or even have positive, regenerative impacts.

It is imperative for companies to develop proactive, integrative strategies that take into account all aspects of climate change, including impacts on biodiversity. This requires rethinking business models, infrastructures and processes to minimize negative impacts and promote regenerative practices. Collective commitment and innovation will be essential to transform supply chains and ensure their resilience in the face of future climate challenges.